Goal-to-go situations and situational play calling could decide Ohio State and Texas for a third straight meeting.

Texas has had Ohio State where it wanted the Buckeyes before. It just couldn’t finish the drive.

This is a talent-equated game. Both teams have NFL talent across the roster, and neither side has an obvious advantage at every position. When I analyze a matchup like this, I start with the head coach, coordinator, and quarterback because those three positions become critical in the game’s most important situations.

I trust Ryan Day, Arthur Smith, and Matt Patricia more than I trust Steve Sarkisian and Will Muschamp in those moments. The quarterback comparison is closer. Arch Manning has the talent and pedigree, but Julian Sayin has his own argument. The larger separation for me comes from the coaching structure around them and how each staff has handled situational football.

The Most Important 10 Yards of the Game

In the 2024 College Football Playoff semifinal, the Longhorns reached the Ohio State 1-yard line with a chance to tie the game. Texas could not get into the end zone, and Jack Sawyer’s fourth-down sack of Quinn Ewers ended the possession before his fumble return put Ohio State ahead 28-14. The Buckeyes eventually won 28-14.

A year later, the problem returned. Texas moved the ball against Ohio State in the 2025 season opener but struggled to finish drives. The Longhorns failed on two fourth-down attempts in the red zone, including a fourth-and-goal quarterback sneak near the goal line. Ohio State won 14-7.

The personnel has changed since those games, but the common thread remains important. Texas has reached the area of the field where the game should be decided, and Ohio State has found a way to prevent the touchdown.

Sarkisian acknowledged that issue this week when discussing Texas’ performance inside the 10-yard line against Ohio State.

“Ultimately, we need to be better in those scenarios,” Sarkisian said.

He pointed to personnel, scheme, play calling, and mentality as factors in winning those situations. He also referenced the previous two meetings and said Texas’ inability to score inside the 10 was “probably the difference in the ball game.”

Day approached the same subject from the other side. He said Ohio State’s players do not need to become something different when they reach third down, the red zone, the goal line, or a two-minute situation. They need to return to the level at which they trained and play the next snap.

Once the field shrinks, Ohio State has consistently won the one-on-ones that matter most—at the line of scrimmage, on the perimeter, and at the goal line.

New Teams, Same Problems?

As Texas is facing that challenge again, the Longhorns have to find a way to turn their opportunities into touchdowns against a different Ohio State defense. Caleb Downs, Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles, and several other major contributors from the previous matchup are now in the NFL, leaving Matt Patricia with a different group to develop.

Ohio State still has plenty of talent. The Buckeyes added important pieces on defense while bringing back much of the offensive foundation. Jeremiah Smith remains the biggest matchup problem on the outside, and Sayin enters his second season as a starter.

Manning comes in with another year of experience and a chance to solve the problems that have kept Texas from finishing against Ohio State. Ryan Wingo is still a perimeter weapon, while the Longhorns have added more explosive talent around Manning, like transfer WR Cam Coleman. Colin Simmons gives Texas a proven difference-maker on the defensive side of the ball, too.

Can Texas Finally Finish the Drive?

Sarkisian’s offense has consistently created opportunities against Ohio State. In fact, Texas averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year, running for 166 yards on 37 attempts compared to Ohio State’s 2.3 ypc. However, the issue has been converting those opportunities into touchdowns when the field compresses and the defense dictates the terms of the possession, as situational play calling becomes critical.

The right call can create the leverage a team needs, but the wrong call can handicap a possession early. Against the Buckeyes, Texas has not consistently found the right answer, which is why I trust Ohio State’s coaching staff more in those situations.

Ryan Day has repeatedly shown a willingness to adjust his approach based on the flow of the game. Arthur Smith gives Ohio State another experienced offensive play caller. Patricia brings his defensive experience, knowing adjustments will be critical. Day remains involved in the larger game-management decisions.

Sarkisian has proven his offense can put pressure on a defense. Furthermore, Muschamp has the experience to prepare his defense for Ohio State’s personnel. Texas’ issue has been an inability to consistently make the right decision situationally.

Trusting Ohio State

If the quarterback matchup is close, the team that puts its quarterback in better situations has an advantage. Ohio State has shown over the last two meetings that it can win games without dominating every statistical category because it has made the critical plays in the red zone.

Manning has already experienced what it feels like to face Ohio State, where the Longhorns moved the ball but could not finish. He knows where the previous opportunities were lost, which makes the quarterback matchup one of the most important parts of the game. But I still come back to the coaching staffs.

If Texas gets inside the Ohio State 10-yard line Saturday, that possession could tell us whether the previous two meetings were a trend or a product of the teams Ohio State and Texas had in those games.

The Buckeyes have won those moments against the Longhorns the last two times, and the 2026 matchup gives both teams different personnel with which to approach them. If this becomes another one-score game, I trust Ohio State to make the critical decision and execute the gotta-have-it play.

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NEXT: Read 5 Things Ohio State Must Figure Out Before Facing Texas From Ryan Day’s Press Conference