The No. 3 Ohio State football team is ready to collide with No. 7 Penn State on Saturday in the Horseshoe in Columbus, Ohio on FOX.

The Ohio State Buckeyes host the Penn State Nittany Lions for one of the top matchups of the college football season on Saturday at noon ET. 

Ryan Day’s Buckeyes and James Franklin’s Nittany Lions enter the showdown at 6-0, looking for the inside track in the Big Ten East. Additionally, massive College Football Playoff implications ride on the result of this game. 

While both teams have to play Michigan to complete the round-robin, the winner will undoubtedly be in a stronger position of contention. On the other hand, the loser is not out of either race by any stretch. 

Earlier this week in my Buckeye State of the Union article, I gave you the rundown on the Ohio State Buckeyes heading into the game, so I’ll start with its opponent. Many consider this year’s group to be Franklin’s best team. On paper, the Nittany Lions sure seem like the potential is there. Let’s dive into how good Penn State is so far:

Through six games, they have the country’s No. 2 scoring and No. 1 total defense, as they have stifled opponents each week. However, three of the opposing offenses were Delaware, Iowa, and UMass, so the numbers could be skewed. Nonetheless, Penn State is still talented and stout and will give problems to Kyle McCord and the Ohio State offense. 

Offensively, Drew Allar will make his first road start in an environment of this caliber. The young QB has been effective through six weeks, using a methodical approach to move the football. Penn State has only averaged more than five yards per play once this season. It was against West Virginia (5.1) in the season opener.

That stat illustrates that Penn State is not an explosive offense and takes the underneath plays to methodically march down the field. At the same time, that matchup could favor the Nittany Lions against the Buckeyes’ defensive approach. 

All season, Ohio State is committed to not giving up the big play and sacrificing the short-yardage gains for the payoff of making teams execute a full drive the length of the field to earn their points. Expect Jim Knowles to dial up tighter or press-man coverage, but do not be surprised to see Penn State sustain some drives. The battle will be forcing field goals or surrendering touchdowns when that happens.  

Defending Penn State:

1. Allar likes to throw underneath (10 yards or shorter). Only 12 attempted passes of 20+ yards this year, and 5 of those were against UMass. He was 1/5 on those. Play tight coverage to allow DL to get pressure. It will be the opposite approach so far this year. Make Allar beat you deep. 
2. Affect Allar with pressure to create TOs
3. LBs have to be stout in run defense to force Allar to throw 

Penn State is the team everyone is talking about in the Big Ten this season. The defense is elite, and Drew Allar has all the young quarterback hype. And then there’s Ohio State, which also has a first-year starting quarterback, Kyle McCord, and an elite defense of its own. 

Ryan Day and Ohio State have the deepest weapons chest in the nation. However, injuries could deplete the Buckeyes’ arsenal. The health of star WR Emeka Egbuka remains in question, as do the statuses of the trio of RBs TreVeyon Henderson, Miyan Williams, and Chip Trayanum. Defensively, stud CB Denzel Burke left the Purdue game with an undisclosed injury and did not return. His availability is unknown, too, as Day declined to comment on those players. 

Either way, Ohio State has playmakers at those positions to compete with Penn State. However, if the Buckeyes could choose to get just one player back, it would be Denzel Burke due to his lock-down coverage this season. Burke would cover top Nittany Lion threat Keandre Lambert-Smith. 

When Ohio State plays its best under Ryan Day, he is an aggressive playcaller. That’s the version needed on Saturday afternoon. It’s not a tight and conservative approach. Kyle McCord needs to push the ball down the field and stretch it vertically to spread out the Penn State defense, especially the front seven. 

Last year, Marvin Harrison Jr. was unguardable in the matchup. He needs to be McCord’s top target again this year against the vaunted secondary. Julian Fleming and Cade Stover also need to step up to have impactful afternoons to assist the Ohio State offense.

The matchup of the game will be in the trenches on both sides, particularly Ohio State’s offensive line against Penn State’s defensive front. TreVeyon Henderson historically plays well against Penn State. Another high-level performance needs to be on the docket for Saturday if he’s able to play. Let’s examine the keys to the game for the Buckeyes:

Keys for Ohio State:

1. OL has to play well and block
2. LBs have to be solid in run D
3. Attack PSU defense over the top by throwing vertically deep – feed Marvin Harrison Jr. 
4. Get to the red zone. Only 10% of drives they’ve faced have made it to the RZ. But once there, 72% of RZ appearances given up result in TDs 
5. Run Gap schemes, not Power. Use Henderson and Hayden. Shiftier backs with better vision and speed. They are not going to beat PSU front seven straight up the whole game 

We know the Penn State offense is not very explosive, so Ohio State needs to disrupt their long marches down the field. Conversely, Ohio State must take calculated shots down the field to look for the big gains. A lower-scoring, slower-paced game (<20 points) favors Penn State, while more points (>20 points) favor Ohio State. 

Red zone trips will be at a premium on both sides and could be the difference in the game. Penn State does not give up many red zone opportunities. Once teams get inside the twenty more than 70% of the time, a touchdown is scored. That will be the recipe for Ohio State: touchdowns, not field goals. Here are my final thoughts on the massive showdown: 

Final Thoughts:

1. Defenses will cancel each other out 
2. The game comes down to QB play and turnover battle 
3. The crowd has to stay into it, which favors McCord, who has big-game experience. Allar has been shaky on the road so far.
4. The first team to 21 may win. It should look similar to the Notre Dame game for Ohio State but with a home crowd. 

Prediction: Ohio State 23, Penn State 16