2022 NCAA Tournament: How will the Big Ten fare?

The 2022 Tournament is set to begin with the round of 64 this afternoon, with a Big Ten team tipping off in the first matchup.

The Big Ten had a total of 9 teams selected to the tournament, however, only 8 earned the ability to participate in the big dance, as Rutgers fell to Notre Dame in double overtime. However, Indiana was able to defeat Wyoming in their first four matchup and advance to the round of 64.

The question is, how will each of these teams represent the conference? What is their floor and what is their ceiling? Check out my analysis below:

South Region Big Ten Predictions

Michigan:

The Wolverines drew the first official game of the tournament with their seeding of 11^th. They will face the 6^th seeded Colorado State Rams, a team that went 25-5 on the year and has proven itself to be an offensive juggernaut.

This is a very different Wolverines team from the group that won the 2020-21 Big Ten Conference and advanced to the Elite 8. With the loss of some elite players, mixed with inconsistencies on both ends of the court, and some disappointing losses making the tournament was almost a miracle.

Floor: Round of 64

Ceiling: Round of 32

Prediction: 72-68, Colorado State

The absence of Davante Jones (concussion) will have a prolific effect on the Wolverines. I believe they’ll make a first-round exit to a CSU team that is just more offensively sound and consistent.

Illinois:

The 4^th seed Fighting Illini draw a favorable matchup with 13^th seed Chattanooga in the first round. The Mocs were 27-7 on the year, finishing 1^st in the Southern Conference to earn their tournament bid. However, their strength of schedule isn’t all that impressed with 3 of their 4 KenPom Top 100 wins coming against Furman Also, one of their losses came against Murray State, their only opponent to make the tournament.

Illinois should be hungry to make a deep run in the tournament after their round of 32 upset loss to Loyola Chicago last season. Kofi Cockburn tested the transfer portal, but ultimately returned for this exact reason, to help Illinois make a legitimate run at the National Title. The Illini were able to claim a share of the Big Ten regular-season title, but their sights are set on something greater.

Floor: Round of 32

Ceiling: Final 4

Prediction: Sweet 16 loss to Arizona

I believe that Illinois has the potential to make a run at the Final 4, but their path to that round is blocked by some tough opponents. It seems unlikely that with a defense in the 130s nationally they beat all potential opponents such as Arizona, Villanova, and Tennessee.

Ohio State:

The 7^th seeded Buckeyes played themselves into a tough matchup with 10 seed Loyola Chicago after finishing the season 1-4. It seemed they had a 5 seed all but locked up before the late-season debacle that landed them in this tough spot. Loyola Chicago is a very talented team at 25-7 and has made noise in the past 2 tournaments, upsetting Illinois just last year.

The health of the Buckeyes roster and whether they “show up” each game will determine their success. With a team that has only two true scorers in Liddell and Branham role players have a great impact on outcomes. If Kyle Young and Zed Key miss the first-round game and more, this team might be in trouble.

Floor: Round of 64

Ceiling: Sweet 16

Prediction: 82-75, Loyola Chicago

With the way, the Buckeyes ended their season and potential roster issues due to injuries I just don’t foresee this team having any tournament success. The potential for a Sweet 16 or even Elite 8 run is there, but the recent play doesn’t hit at this.

Midwest Region Predictions

Wisconsin:

Wisconsin earned the 3^rd seed in their region after winning a share of the Big Ten regular-season title. They will face the 14^th seed Colgate Raiders, who won the Patriot League after going on a 15-game tear to end their season. On paper, this certainly doesn’t present itself as a potential upset, but Colgate does shoot the 3 ball at one of the best clips in the country they are 2^nd best.

The health of Johnny Davis will no doubt determine whether Wisconsin exits quickly or makes a run at the title. Greg Gard has built another solid lineup, poised at a tournament run, lets’s see if his guys can execute.

Floor: Round of 32

Ceiling: National Championship

Prediction: Sweet 16 exit to Auburn

I love the way that Wisconsin plays basketball and they were a terror in the Big Ten, but if they face Auburn that’s a formidable opponent. I think that the reliance on Johnny Davis will also be the downfall of the Badgers who will stumble before getting to the doorstep of the Elite 8 and Final Four.

Iowa:

The Hawkeyes earned themselves a spot on the 5 seed line after winning the Big Ten tournament and finishing the season as one of the hottest teams in America. Their opponent is 12^th seeded Richmond who was able to squeak out a tournament bid by defeating Davidson in the A10 Championship game. The 5-12 matchups also provide an upset, but look elsewhere for yours I don’t think Richmond will be able to keep pace with Iowa who has been elite on offense all season.

The Hawkeyes are led by breakout star Keegan Murray who was a dominant force in the Big Ten and has a legitimate chance at the Wooden Award and was named a first-team All-American. Coach Fran McCaffrey has built a talented role-playing lineup around him, which features two of his sons and Murray’s brother.

Floor: Round of 32

Ceiling: Elite 8

Prediction: Sweet 16 exit to Kansas

Although Iowa is as hot as any team in America, their defense is a glaring weakness. It has improved late in the season, but this team has relied on outscoring opponents. This is exactly why I don’t like their chances against potential opponents like Kansas, SDSU, Wisconsin, and Auburn who are significantly better on defense.

East Region Predictions

Indiana:

The Hoosiers played their way into the 12^th seed after defeating Wyoming in the first four games in Dayton. They will now face 5^th seed Saint Mary’s who went 25-7 on the season and finished 2^nd in the West Coast Conference. The Gaels are a very talented team and will certainly be the favorite while led by guard Logan Johnson.

The Hoosiers run everything through their outstanding big man, Trayce Jackson-Davis. He put up 29 points in their first four matchup and looks to continue his dominance in the next round. The inconsistency of the three-point shot and scoring from other teammates is what poses an issue for Indiana, which must be overcome to advance.

Floor: Round of 64

Ceiling: Round of 32

Prediction: 71-68, Saint Mary’s

I like what Mike Woodson has done so far at Indiana and Trayce Jackson-Davis is an amazing player, but this team doesn’t have the “it” factor. With a lack of a secondary scorer and a lack of tournament experience, this team doesn’t fit the mold of a bracket buster.

Purdue:

The 3^rd seed Boilermakers drew a favorable matchup against 14^th seeded Yale after having an outstanding season, despite finishing 3^rd in the Big Ten. Yale had a respectable season at 19-11, winning the Ivy League tournament by defeating Princeton. However, their team doesn’t have a great shooting percentage inside the three-point arc and will be quite undersized.

Jaden Ivey is an outstanding guard who no doubt has a bright future in the NBA ahead of him. While Edey and Williamson provide extreme mismatches for defense with their elite interior size and skill. The Purdue offense is deadly, and their defense can often be stingy and smothering.

Floor: Sweet 16

Ceiling: National Championship

Prediction: Final 4

I like this Purdue basketball. Big Ten bias or not their intangibles can’t be denied, and I think these will carry them deep into the tournament. I think barring any slipups this team could be a shoe-in for the Final 4, despite opponents like Baylor and Kentucky on the path.

West Region Predictions

Michigan State:

The Spartans found a way into the tournament as a 7 seed, despite an up and down season that landed them 7^th in the Big Ten. They will face 10^th seeded Davidson who was 1^st in the A10 in the regular season and led by former Spartan Foster Loyer.

The Spartan offense is extremely balanced, with no true go-to scorer, despite Gabe Brown holding that role statistically. This isn’t your typical Spartan juggernaut, but Coach Izzo always seems to find a way come tournament time.

Floor: Round of 64

Ceiling: Elite 8

Prediction: Round of 32 exit to Duke

I love Coach Izzo and what he gets out of teams and especially the chance to knock Duke and Coach K out of his final tourney. However, this Spartan team just doesn’t have enough in my opinion to make a run and upset a 2 seeded Duke.

Schedule:

#4 Illinois vs. #13 Chattanooga- Pittsburgh, Friday, 6:50 pm, TNT

#11 Michigan vs. Colorado State- Indianapolis, Thursday, 12:15 pm, CBS

#7 Ohio State vs. Loyola Chicago- Pittsburgh, Frida, 12:15 pm, CBS

#3 Wisconsin vs. #14 Colgate- Milwaukee, Friday, 9:50 pm, TBS

#5 Iowa vs. #12 Richmond- Buffalo, Thursday, 3:10 pm, truTV

#3 Purdue vs. #14 Yale- Milwaukee, Friday, 2:00 pm, TBS

#12 Indiana vs. #5 Saint Mary’s- Portland, Thursday, 7:20 pm, TBS

#7 Michigan St. vs #10 Davidson- Greenville, Friday, 9:40 pm, CBS

Featured Image: Joseph Cress, USA Today